Global stocks sold off to start the year as volatility spiked in January. Despite pretty good earnings, concerns about geopolitical risks, rising inflation, and tighter monetary policy weighed heavily on stocks around the world. US stocks were hit the hardest, with the S&P 500 down (5.17%) and small-cap stocks dropping (9.63%). International stocks were also negative, with the MSCI EAFE down (4.82%) and emerging markets down (1.89%). Commodities were a bright spot, finishing the month up over 8%. US Treasury yields rose on concerns about higher inflation and tighter monetary policy: core US bonds were down (2.15%), and global bonds finished down (2.05%).
This month we focused on the following topics:
- Corrections Are Normal – We review the historical probability of a correction in any given year, and how investors shouldn't panic when they happen. We also highlight that bear markets usually happen when a recession is imminent, which does not seem likely in 2022.
- Avoid the Speculative S*&%! – We discuss the importance of avoiding major losses in your portfolio and the impact big losses can have on your long-term wealth. Our advice is to avoid the most speculative stocks that are based on "good stories" and shaky business models.
